Bitcoin’s current on-chain indicators suggest the leading cryptocurrency may be at the start of a new market phase, according to recent blockchain analytics data. With the momentum ratio nearing 0.8, analysts say that in the next six months, the digital asset will follow one of three primary trajectories, depending on key threshold developments.
The Ratio — derived from a blend of Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metrics — is now positioned in what analysts describe as a “start rally zone,” often preceding significant price movements in past cycles.
Scenario 1: Bullish Momentum Could Push Bitcoin to New Highs
Should the Ratio exceed the 1.0 mark and remain above it, analysts project that Bitcoin may enter a sustained upward trend. This scenario considered the most optimistic, draws comparisons to market behaviour observed in 2017 and 2021. Under such conditions, the asset could reach prices between $150,000 and $175,000, echoing previous parabolic rallies tied to heightened investor activity and institutional engagement.
Scenario 2: Extended Consolidation Within Current Range
In a more moderate outcome, if the Ratio remains between 0.8 and 1.0, Bitcoin’s price is expected to consolidate in a broad range between $90,000 and $110,000. This base-case scenario suggests that while investor sentiment remains positive, the market may pause without significant buying or selling pressure. Such a phase could reflect ongoing position maintenance among participants, with limited new capital entering the market.
Scenario 3: Short-Term Correction Could Lower Prices
If the Ratio declines to around 0.75 or lower, Bitcoin could experience a downward correction. Analysts suggest that this level would likely trigger profit-taking behaviour among short-term holders, potentially pushing the price to a support range of $70,000 to $85,000. However, given that a notable correction has occurred in recent months, this scenario is viewed as less probable under current conditions.
The Ratio’s position and trend direction will be closely monitored in the coming weeks as market participants evaluate which of these scenarios is most likely to unfold based on trading volumes, sentiment shifts, and broader macroeconomic signals.
