Bitcoin could be heading for a fresh all-time high over the next year, according to a new forecast from Wall Street giant Citi, as institutional adoption deepens and regulatory clarity improves in the United States.
In a 12-month outlook released this week, Citi analysts set a base-case price target of $143,000 for Bitcoin, representing a significant upside from its current market level. The bank also outlined a wide range of possible outcomes, with a bullish scenario placing BTC above $189,000, while a bearish case sees prices retreating to around $78,500.
As of Friday, Bitcoin was trading near $89,000, roughly 30% below its late-October peak. The pullback followed heavy outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), although Citi notes that ETF flows have stabilized in recent weeks.
ETFs and Regulation Drive Citi’s Bitcoin Thesis
Citi’s forecast is anchored on the continued institutionalization of Bitcoin, particularly through ETFs, which have become a major gateway for traditional investors.
“Our forecasts, in particular for bitcoin, rest on an assumption that investor adoption continues with flows into ETFs of $15 billion boosting token prices,” the analysts wrote, led by Alex Saunders, Citi’s head of global quant macro strategy.
Beyond capital flows, regulatory developments are also playing a central role in the bank’s outlook. Citi highlighted ongoing discussions in the U.S. Senate around its version of the Clarity Act, legislation that would formally place Bitcoin under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Such a move, the analysts argue, could reduce regulatory uncertainty and encourage broader participation from institutional investors.
The downside scenario, however, reflects broader macroeconomic risks.
Citi said its bear case is driven by “recessionary macro-factors,” which could weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Ethereum Seen With Limited Upside
While Bitcoin received a largely optimistic assessment, Citi struck a more cautious tone on Ethereum. The bank set a $4,300 base-case target for ETH, which suggests more limited upside compared to Bitcoin’s projected gains.
At the time of the report, Ethereum was trading around $2,959. Citi attributed its more conservative outlook to weakening network activity and Ethereum’s reliance on usage rather than scarcity.
“ETH is sensitive to activity given its potential use as programmable money rather than Bitcoin’s ‘store-of-value’ narrative,” the analysts noted, adding that on-chain activity has “declined significantly.”
Market Implications
Citi’s projections arrive at a time when crypto markets are reassessing momentum following a strong rally earlier in the year. While near-term volatility remains, the bank’s outlook underscores a growing belief among major financial institutions that Bitcoin’s role within traditional portfolios is strengthening, especially as regulatory guardrails begin to take shape.
If ETF inflows and regulatory progress continue as Citi expects, Bitcoin’s next major move may be driven less by retail speculation and more by institutional conviction.
