This is the game right here. 45K BTC getting scooped while the price barely moves… feels like something’s building under the surface.
In a powerful display of conviction, Bitcoin whales have initiated their second-largest accumulation spree of 2025, absorbing a massive 45,000 BTC. This aggressive buying occurred as Bitcoin (BTC) clawed its way back from a four-month low of $98,900, briefly touching $107,500 on Tuesday before stalling.
Despite the monumental buying pressure from these large-scale investors, the price has been firmly rejected, correcting to around $103,000 by Thursday. The digital asset now finds itself in a high-stakes standoff, pinned below the formidable $106,000 resistance level.
The market is currently defined by a stark divergence: while one class of whales is buying the dip with force, another cohort of long-term holders is selling heavily, creating a tense equilibrium that has frustrated any attempt at a decisive recovery.
Whales Feast on Retail Fear
On-chain data reveals a classic “smart money” maneuver. The entities defined as “whales”—wallets holding 1,000 BTC or more—are not just buying; they are strategically absorbing the supply shed by smaller, panicked investors.
This recent 45,000 BTC haul is second only to the accumulation wave seen in March of this year, which also occurred during a sharp price decline.
According to market data provider CryptoQuant, these large players are systematically taking advantage of the fear in the market.
In a Quicktake analysis on Wednesday, CryptoQuant analyst Caueconomy laid out the situation plainly:
“In the last week, whales accumulated more than 45,000 BTC, marking the second-largest weekly accumulation process in these wallets. Large players are once again taking advantage of the capitulation of small investors to absorb coins.”
This behavior suggests that the most deep-pocketed investors see significant value at the current levels, viewing the sub-$100K dip as a discount, not a warning. However, this spot-buying volume, while massive, has so far been insufficient to turn the tide on its own.
A Wall of Sellers at $106,000
The whales’ accumulation has collided with a formidable wall of overhead supply. The $106,000 mark isn’t just a psychological number; it’s a dense concentration of sellers.
Bitcoin’s cost basis distribution heatmap, analyzed by on-chain intelligence firm Glassnode, shows precisely why the rally stopped dead in its tracks. Approximately 417,750 BTC were acquired by investors at an average cost basis between $106,000 and $107,200.
These are investors who likely bought during previous support levels or the subsequent breakdown and are now desperate to “exit near breakeven.” This dynamic creates a thick layer of sell pressure. Glassnode’s “Week Onchain” report describes this phenomenon as a “dense supply cluster” that is capping momentum.
Glassnode added:
“This overhang of latent supply creates a natural resistance zone where rallies may stall, suggesting that sustained recovery will require renewed inflows strong enough to absorb this wave of distribution.”
The market simply lacks the broad-based demand to chew through this wall. The whale buying is being met, and so far neutralized, by this wave of breakeven selling.
The Other Side: Long-Term Holders Take Profit
Complicating the picture further is the opposing action from other large players. While new whales are buying, a significant number of Long-Term Holders (LTHs) are heading for the exits.
This isn’t a trickle; it’s a flood. In the last 30 days, LTHs have offloaded a staggering 815,000 BTC. Their daily “spending,” or selling, has ramped up from 12,000 BTC per day in July to over 26,000 BTC per day this week.
This cohort includes “OG” whales who are finally taking profits. On-chain trackers highlighted a prominent long-term whale, identified as Owen Gunden, who transferred 2,401 BTC (worth approximately $245 million) to the Kraken exchange on Thursday, presumably to sell.
However, analysts suggest this isn’t necessarily a bearish signal for the long-term, but rather a strategic, end-of-year rotation. With spot Bitcoin ETFs now a mature and regulated product, many LTHs are reportedly selling their on-chain BTC to re-buy inside an ETF wrapper.
This allows them to realize profits or losses for tax purposes before the year’s end while maintaining their exposure to the asset in a more tax-efficient or “in-the-system” structure.
The Path Forward: What to Watch
The market is currently “Stuck in Limbo,” as Glassnode aptly titled its recent report. The Fear and Greed Index has plunged back into “Extreme Fear,” and social media is rife with a “wave of FUD,” especially after Bitcoin dipped below $100,000 for the second time this month.
This battle between whale accumulation and LTH/breakeven distribution has trapped the price. For the bulls to regain control, two things need to happen.
First, the market needs backup. The current whale buying isn’t enough. As Glassnode stated, there is a clear need for…
“…renewed conviction and stronger demand from new market entrants” and other investors, such as day traders and retail investors, to push the price to above $106,000.
Second, traders are watching the chart for a decisive technical break. The key is not just to touch the resistance but to flip it into support.
Analyst Daan Crypro Trades noted the immediate technical posture in a recent post on X (formerly Twitter):
“BTC is trending up on the lower time frame. But it needs to break that $107K area. If it can do so, it would turn this into a decent deviation and retake back into the range.”
If Bitcoin can decisively break and hold above $107,000, analysts see a path to the next major liquidity cluster, which sits around $112,000. A failure to do so, however, leaves the door open for a retest of the critical $100,000 psychological level and the $97,500 support zone.
The battle lines are drawn. On one side, 45,000 BTC of fresh whale demand. On the other, 417,750 BTC of breakeven sellers and 815,000 BTC of LTH distribution. The first side to blink will likely determine Bitcoin’s direction for the remainder of 2025.
