Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts may have called the bluff on some earlier predictions that tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) could be worth $30 trillion by 2030. The forecast was shared in June by Standard Chartered Bank and Synpulse.
According to the analyst, however, the bullish prediction is wild and may not be realistic.
Coutts shared his views in a recent X post, citing that a distant 5% of that amount will be a more likely target. Though hinged on some conditions, his forecast reads partly:
“If the current 2-year CAGR of 121% continues, we could see around $1.3 trillion in tokenized traditional assets by 2030.”
Tokenization of RWAs and The Impact on Web3 Ecosystem
The tokenization of assets is the process of issuing security tokens (a type of blockchain token) as a representation of real digital tradable assets. These tokens can represent anything from real estate to bonds, art, and stocks. In other words, it is the digital proof of ownership of an asset, represented by a token (or tokens) on a blockchain.
Essentially, Coutts’ idea is that Wall Street’s prediction is too much of an overreach. However, even his modest $1.3 trillion estimate could have significant effects on the world of Web3.
According to the analyst, with $1.3 trillion in real-world assets (RWA) on-chain, there is no telling the ripple effect it would have on other parts of the crypto ecosystem including non-fungible tokens (NFTs), social platforms, and even gaming.
Coutts went further in his analysis, trying to look at the “value accrual” on Ethereum. Despite Ethereum being the preferred platform for early TradFi asset issuers, he believes that this may not be easy to calculate. His reason is that the value captured by the base Ethereum network itself may not be much considering how much market share layer-2 networks are poised to capture. His statement in that regard reads:
“L2s might capture 95-99% of the revenue, with the remainder paid to ETH as settlement costs.”
Other Predictions
Two months ago, analysts from consulting firm McKinsey & Company shared their own prediction that tokenized financial assets could hit $2 trillion by 2030. Admitting that they may have got off to a slow start, the growth momentum has since picked up, and all signs point to the fact, the analysts said.
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